The hottest oil market in July looks back and look

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Review and Prospect of oil market in July: deduce the years of passion


as a scarce resource commodity, the price of oil not only reflects the current supply and demand fundamentals, but also reflects expectations for the future. The U.S. economy has been recovering since 2003 and is now at risk of falling into recession again. At the same time, the growing economies of emerging economies have also greatly increased the demand for oil The low level of the US dollar is still one of the important factors driving up oil prices Although there is a voice in the market that the oil price foam theory has once again become a hot topic, some people believe that international speculative forces are behind the oil price rise But is this really the case? The recent intensifying Iranian nuclear crisis has also contributed to the sharp rise in oil prices As the saying goes, the current oil price is really at its peak. Is it time for the so-called rationality to return? In the future, the trend of fuel oil market will still show a volatile upward pattern

I July market review

crude oil rose first and then fell. After hitting a record high of $147.9 in the middle of this month, it dramatically turned downward. At present, it is around $123, down 16% At present, there is still no sign of stopping the decline, so the current intermediate adjustment deserves attention As a non renewable resource, the scarcity of oil is self-evident Especially after the rise of the BRICs and some other emerging markets, the demand for oil is unprecedented, which is also the most fundamental factor leading to the bull market of crude oil prices for several years

II Analysis of the causes of oil prices in July (I) the world is facing the risk of future oil shortages

the global economy, especially emerging economies such as China and India, has experienced rapid development in the past five years. The annual average growth rate of global GDP reached 4.5%, an increase of 1.4% compared with the average growth rate of GDP in 1998 and 2002. Economic growth has driven the rapid increase in oil demand. In 2003 and 2007, the average growth rate of global oil consumption was 1.8%, higher than the annual average growth rate. It can be said that it is the key parts of various machinery, electrical appliances, Chinese workers and other products, accounting for 0.7%. Therefore, the annual average crude oil price reached 53.47 US dollars/barrel, during which the average increase in crude oil price was 22.9%, an increase of 13.4% over 1998 and 2002

OECD oil consumption has decreased year by year in the past three years, but the oil demand of emerging economies such as China and the Middle East has increased rapidly, driving the growth of global demand. In, the average increment of oil consumption in China, the Middle East, Latin America and India reached 8.3%, 4.4%, 2.0% and 3.0% respectively, which were much higher than the global level. Among the two countries and regions with the fastest growth, China and the Middle East account for an average of 35.9% and 18.6% of the global incremental oil consumption

comparison between global GDP and oil consumption growth

growth rate of oil consumption in non OECD countries and regions and the proportion of oil consumption increment in China and the Middle East to global increment

for a time, the voice of resource depletion theory is telling us that we have reached the "peak of oil": at this point, world oil production can no longer be increased and begins to decline. Although this statement that Suning's share price did not rise in suspense on the second day cannot be confirmed at present, it is believed that it is only a matter of time

this sharp rise in oil prices can be regarded as the fourth oil crisis. Before the oil crisis in 1973, the oil price was $3 to $4, in the era of cheap oil. After the oil crisis, it had a great impact on American industrial production and seriously affected the American economy. After that, the U.S. manufacturing industry began to pay attention to the prevention of the oil crisis, so the surge in oil prices has little impact on the overall U.S. manufacturing industry

the energy crisis is forming before our eyes, and global leaders must take action on it. The oil price is soaring, and it looks less like a foam. Fundamental changes are taking place in the field of energy, and its importance has not been fully understood. With the increase of population and the rapid economic growth of developing countries, the global energy demand is also growing rapidly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the global energy demand in 2030 will be 50% higher than now. However, the fossil fuels that the world still relies on are limited and far from being environmentally friendly. Now, we must think seriously about developing feasible alternative energy

(II) Limited production capacity is also one of the factors for the rise in oil prices

OPEC oil reserves account for 75.9% of the world, while production only accounts for 43.8%. The global oil supply is seriously unbalanced. Once there is a problem in OPEC supply, it will be difficult for non OPEC countries to make up for it. From the process of this round of oil price rise, it can be seen that in the face of OPEC's refusal to increase production, western countries, in addition to constantly exerting pressure, cannot change the current situation through their own efforts. Therefore, the market has strong expectations for changes in OPEC output, production capacity and policies. The growth rate of OPEC production is decreasing year by year, and there has been a negative growth in 2007. Due to the reduction of investment and Saudi Arabia's increase in production, OPEC's remaining capacity could only be maintained at 1.9 million barrels per day at the end of the second quarter. EIA predicts that it will be difficult for the remaining capacity to change significantly before the end of 2008

chekib Khalil, chairman of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on July 28 that it is unlikely that oil prices will fall in the foreseeable future. Asked whether oil prices would fall from their current record highs, Khalil said he expected oil prices to remain at their current highs Asked how long the rise in oil prices would last, Khalil said that no one knew the answer

Standard & Poor's released a research report on July 2, pointing out that high oil prices failed to exert sufficient inhibition on world oil demand, and the market supply-demand relationship will continue to be tense under the condition of relatively slow growth of oil supply. Although there may be a correction in oil prices in the short term, oil prices are entering a higher cyclical range in the long run. The report said that world oil consumption increased by 2.4% in 2007, which was slightly lower than the 2.7% increase in 2006, but still higher than the average level over the years. On the other hand, global oil production fell by 0.2% in 2007, the first decline since 2002. Among them, the daily output of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decreased by 350000 barrels, and the daily output of non OPEC oil producing countries increased by 230000 barrels

according to the statistics of the U.S. energy information agency and BP global energy report, the proved oil reserves of Iran and Libya are equivalent to 11.44% and 3.6% of the world, while the production accounts for only 4.9% and 2.24% of the world. It shows that Iran and Libya (especially Iran) raise the production ratio of $100/ton to various international customers, which is far lower than the proportion of its reserves, and there is a lot of room to increase production capacity in the future

opec oil production growth rate and residual capacity

in addition, the rise in oilfield construction costs has limited capacity expansion. Under the background of the second oil crisis, the crude oil price (nominal price) in the early 1980s reached a record high so far. However, from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s, the oil price did not rise sharply as expected, but fell. In order to cope with the long-term low oil price, the upstream oil enterprises adopted a tightening strategy. By this century, with the rapid economic growth and strong demand for oil, the oil industry has been difficult to meet the needs of the market. The increasing cost of labor and machinery and equipment has led to the postponement or cancellation of a large number of new engineering projects. At the same time, many governments around the world believe that with the continuous maturity of polyurethane waterproof technology, the government increases the tax revenue of oil enterprises, squeezing the profit space of oil enterprises, causing more engineering projects to be postponed, and the expansion of oil production capacity is difficult. The Cambridge Energy Association oil and gas field construction cost index shows that the current cost has doubled from four years ago, and this trend will continue

cost of oil and gas field construction

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